Originally Posted by
Taksin
I actually did check the Brazil statistics at the time, CD, and the number was still below the UK at that point. They are still similar, roughly equivalent and that fact is relevant to the question Dicko asked quite some time before you entered the debate. I tried at the time to post the graph, which was indeed easily available but this website wouldn't accept the format.
Assuming you're referring to the date you responded on and posted that comment (below...)
Originally Posted by
Taksin
and in a late reply to dicko, Brazil still has a lower death rate per million of population than Britain, and that is without a lockdown.
....and the date you posted it on (12th September 2020, )
.......then that's not really true either.
On September 12th, the UK had a reported 41,623 total confirmed deaths (and a 613 deaths per 1 million) while Brazil had 131,274 confirmed deaths of (and a 621 deaths per 1 million )
(sources : https://www.worldometers.info/coronavirus/#countries
Brazil numbers :- https://g1.globo.com/bemestar/coronavirus/noticia/2020/09/16/casos-e-mortes-por-coronavirus-no-brasil-em-16-de-setembro-segundo-consorcio-de-veiculos-de-imprensa.ghtml
UK numbers : - https://coronavirus.data.gov.uk/ )
As for Sweden....let's break this down into parts...
RE : their decision to not go for a Lockdown unlike virtually all their immediate neighbours - in the (misguided) attempt to shoot for a level of "herd immunity" in hoping that they would overall suffer a less severe hit (both in terms of deaths and more pertinently their Economy), firstly let's look at how they fared among confirmed deaths....
Not surprisingly when compared to their most immediate neighbours (with similar population profiles) - and all of whom went for strict lockdowns, masking, Social distancing...etc.....
One of these is not like the others. See if you can figure out which one (I've helped you out a little bit)
Total confirmed COVID-19 deaths as of September 16th, 2020
Denmark 633
Finland 339
Norway 265
Estonia 64
Latvia 35
Lithuania 87
Sweden 5,851
Even if you add the total deaths in all the other countries (1,423), you still have close to 4 times a higher death count in Sweden compared to all their neighbours. So clearly, that's not good.
Secondly, as for their original underlying reasoning in going a different way and eschewing the lockdowns - unlike their neighbours (and most places in the world), being the aim of attaining "Herd immunity":-
"The health authorities predicted that 40% of the Stockholm population would have had the disease and acquired antibodies by May 2020.
However, the actual prevalence figure was around 15%."
https://medicalxpress.com/news/2020-08-covid-herd-immunity-sweden-materialize.html
To successfully attain what is understood to be 'herd immunity' to a particular contagion within a given population, most epidemiologists agree that you need to have at least 70% (... and really, preferably 90%) of the population having had the disease, recovered from it and showing clear antibodies against it.
Which would mean with (only) a 15% rate showing antibodies 6 months into the epidemic (...and 9-20 times the deaths of their neighbours, to boot...), their attempt could be surmised as being a total failure.
And this is even putting aside the consideration that nobody quite yet knows whether such an immunity would be lasting as the data is yet unclear as to how long COVID-19 antibodies last in the human body and for how long during that period they are truly effective against re-infection.
Lastly, the Economic hit...
>>>"“The economic consequences of the pandemic will be considerable,” Sweden’s central bank said in a recent report as it forecast an economic contraction for Sweden of between 7 and 10 percentage points for this year and unemployment of between 9 and 10 percent. Last year the jobless figure was 6.8 percent. The European Commission's current forecast for the eurozone for 2020 is for an economic contraction of 7.75 percent."
https://www.riksbank.se/en-gb/press-and-published/notices-and-press-releases/press-releases/2020/monetary-policy-april-2020--the-riksbank-is-supporting-an-economy--in-crisis/
So a bigger contraction of their Economy (not surprising, given the fact that they are primarily an Export-based economy and all their trading partners had their respective economies halted so,......no one to sell to), and a resulting bigger jobless and unemployment rate than the forecast for the Eurozone average.
So no benefit there either.
Which brings us back to....more people died than needed to (if you compare them to their neighbours), they got no "herd immunity" benefit, and their Economy seems like it might end up even far worse.
Brazil has had a bungled response and there's no question about it. If you speak to anyone on the ground there, with their 'mini-Trump' president Bolsonaro, who fired 3 health ministers that were all saying the same thing and urging him to listen to the science and to the scientists and institute the proper measures to prevent deaths, only to end up with what looks like a higher death rate (only second to the US in the Americas).
Thanks to Bolsonaro they didn't have a national lockdown like their medical authorities were urging him to institute, so individual cities and state governors were taking it upon themselves to institute regional lockdowns as their health systems were becoming overwhelmed and the crisis worsened , in what become a disjointed response that was mostly too late for most of the people who died - again, much like the US response.
And then to top it all off, Bolsonaro himself got infected after weeks of mocking social distancing and masking efforts of his own government and health officials.
The underlying and recurrent theme in all these instances is that the science got it pretty much spot on, insofar as the best way to respond to the initial outbreak of the virus, which included the usual measures of social distancing, masking and locking down to reduce transmission rates and give Healthcare services a chance to cope with, and to manage the incoming sick, as well as to give any infected a better chance to recover rather than die.
Even in the countries that decided to ignore the science.
The numbers simply bear it out.
It just depends on whether you believe a higher confirmed death rate (and potential prolongation of the pandemic ) is justified and worth the "freedom" you believe you're being deprived and denied, as well as the Economic benefit you think will be "gained" by not doing what medical experts say you should do.
'I got told there's an English phrase, 'You don't win trophies with kids'. I didn't know that' ... - Jurgen Klopp
Stone-Cold Savage!
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