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You're accusing me of lying here but I didn't lie. I searched for and found a graph for whatever day I made that post (I can't even be bothered to go back and check dates because it is of little consequence and I know what I did). I'd also watched a Youtube video released that day that still had the UK above Brazil in deaths per million. Even if the data was that of a few days later that you are reporting on then it wouldn't make any difference. They are comparable and still are.
I have no interest in looking at your sources to see whether they are being retroactively updated to cope with the lag in recording procedures. A lot of graphs contain lags shown in pretty colours. It makes no odds to anything I think or believe.
You appear to be convinced that 'the science got it spot on', but I have already said why I think that statement is;
1) presumptuous or wishful thinking (I disagree that the numbers bear it out and there are too many variables to draw conclusions presently)
2) a misrepresentation of 'the science'. (There are many disagreements - I've posted one expert questioning the science recently on this thread. There are many, many more)
3) wrong. (I think your examples are selective. I could stack the examples the other way to 'prove' lockdown isn't the key determining factor but I have no interest in doing that. I believe we don't understand how the virus has circulated and why certain populations have suffered more than others. I have a very long list of possible reasons that I rank higher than lockdown if you're interested)
The most successful lockdown so far has been New Zealand and I think their policy is a complete disaster, so I'm not as fixated on the graphs as you seem to think. When do you think they will be able to open up their country again?
I know everyone is keen to compare Sweden to Norway and Finland but what about the differences between
Sweden and Belgium
UK and Germany
Japan and India
Italy and Greece
Vietnam and China
New York and Wisconsin
Sweden and Spain
If you are convinced that lockdown is the one policy we have available, good luck to you, but I am arguing about what to do now that the disease has gone and the hospitals are empty. I think governments are being misled. I don't think lockdown made a difference here but I accept there is no scientific proof yet, if there ever will be. I also know you don't have the scientific proof, even if the numbers appear to 'bear it out' as you state confidently. That's what Imperial College and Matt Hancock believe. I know I'm in the minority (currently).
Your last sentence is almost right in that there are different problems to be weighed up when deciding what to do. However, the 'prolonging' of the pandemic is theoretical and I've already pointed out that the current policy has changed from flattening the curve to eradicating the disease altogether so I think we should be clear about that.
And again, 'doing what experts say you should' is terrible advice in my opinion. We have to use our judgement, especially in a complex system - the global human organisation - where fixating on one problem is obviously limited to say the least. I'd prefer to say idiotic so I'm not that impressed with some of the more influential scientists. Algorithms are not a good way to make decisions on the future in complex systems. That is a totally different topic but completely relevant.
What we do know is that it arrived here and followed a completely predictable epidemiological curve - if you don't believe me, search for Prof Knut Wittkowski's videos from around March where he describes what shape the curves will take, the time frame, and predicts (or proves) that the lockdowns were too late to make any difference. The disease was already established and spread before lockdown, the deaths were lagging by a few weeks. (I got ill on March 3rd and Professor Dolores Cahill says she got it in Dublin in February (she had a positive test) as her husband brought it back from New York. New York was supposed to receive Covid-19 later than the UK). For Wittkowski to be right, by the way, there would have to be herd immunity achieved, so that is some good news.
If Wittkowski was right you could argue that the governments failed in their lockdown policies. But then you can't argue that the lockdowns were a success at the same time.
Last edited by Taksin; 17th September 2020 at 12:03 AM.
I’ve volunteered for the vaccine trials for Covid-19, which apparently were made by a Russian Pharmaceutical company.
I received my first shot and wanted to let everyone know that it’s completely safe with иo side effects whatsoeveя, and that I feelshκι χoρoshό я чувствую себя немного странно и я думаю, что вытащил ослиные уши
Offender Of The Offended...!!
It`s Better To Reign In Hell, Than Serve In Heaven!
Your use of Cyrillic may turn out prophetic Justin..
Hows the novichock working? is it getting on your nerves??
Cleaning up the Scots since the 13th century
I wrote 3000 words about Brazil
But got timed out ffs ... lost !!
Bolsonaro
Is trying to stop corruption
Stop bandidos
Read about
Car wash operation
https://en.m.wikipedia.org/wiki/Operation_Car_Wash
Lula ex president millions if not billions corruption !!
Bandidos running the country... robbing your phone or watch by gun point in he streets .
Bolsonaro trying to improve the situation in the amazon.
Hospitals trying to get funds via corruption higher prices of ventilators (false bills)
Or states falsifying deaths with rocks in coffins.
Remember brazil is 25x the size of uk in geography.
3x population.
Remember Globo news/ tv is left wing Lula puppet. Received millions of money from the left govt.
Globo hate Bolsonaro.
Globo is the bbc of brazil
So when the bbc cut paste a story from globo then of course you gonna get Bolsonaro haters.
Bolsonaro wanted to stop the carnival in feb march
But oh nooooo he cant
Then and there we had massive increases of covid.
Everyday Globo try to persecute the brazil president.
So of course when the bbc copy and paste a story from globo it doesnt read good .
True but even higher density than the UK for most of its huge population as the vast land mass is virtually free of people. Some indigenous groups under threat of logging, farming and mining but vast majority of Brazil’s population live in high density hyper urban areas
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