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First Team
From the Swiss policy research team
“The 1918 “Spanish flu” virus, on the other hand, was a very dangerous virus that had a very different mortality profile. In addition to old people, it also killed babies and young children plus young adults between 20 and 45 years at very high rates (see chart at the bottom).
In contrast, the mortality profile of the covid-19 coronavirus is essentially zero for children and young adults and near zero below 50, before it begins to rise slowly and then very steeply above 70 and especially above 80, reaching extreme levels in nursing homes.
Thus the covid-19 mortality profile is almost identical to natural mortality. This doesn’t mean that covid-19 doesn’t increase someone’s risk of death – it absolutely does – but this increase is proportional to the pre-existing risk of death of the respective age and risk group.
The characteristics of covid-19 may have to do with the cardiovascular and immunological effects of the virus and they explain the high death rate in nursing homes (up to 70% of deaths), in people above 70 years (about 90%), and in Western countries in general. In contrast, covid death rates in Africa, predicted by many (including Bill Gates) to be high, have been very low.
Many people expect a “real pandemic” to kill also younger people, or at least babies, at a significant rate, as the 1918 flu and other flu pandemics indeed did. Some skeptics therefore concluded that covid-19 must then be another “fake pandemic”. But it is not – it simply has a very different and much more “natural” mortality profile.
If covid-19 had hit us in the 1950s – with a much younger population, few nursing homes, and a much lower prevalence of cardiovascular disease – it would have caused very few deaths.
Because of the covid-19 mortality profile, mass PCR testing and contact tracing in the general population make little sense and create an additional “casedemic” on top of the pandemic. Mass vaccinations will also make rather little sense, especially because at the time experimental vaccines might become available, many people may already have been exposed to the wild virus.“
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Please note that our government, as with almost all others as far as I can see, has made no special attempt to protect nursing homes this winter. Instead we are going through the farce of trying to control the spread through the almost entirely safe portion of the population, fussing endlessly about positive tests. The fear that has been whipped up is suspect for anyone with a clue about the history of tyrannical rule.
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Get well soon Kev!Originally Posted by Kev0909
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Here's a question for Taskin
I saw something online from a scientist recently, the jist of it was pretty much that numerous coronavirus' have been around for a long time, and that one of the effects they have is to attack the antibodies that protect people from the virus, making them increasingly more susceptible to more severe infection from it over time.
Is this something that you are familiar with? If it is then do we know whether or not the current virus attacks/weakens these anti bodies at a faster rate and if the virus does have the effect of weakening peoples resistance to it over time and has been doing that over time, surely it isn't a good thing for anyone to be infected with it
Also why do people, well the media keep talking about this being a second wave, it isn't a second wave, it is the first wave, we 'went back' too early while there were still too many cases and continued and escalated the first wave
"If Everton were playing at the bottom of my garden, i'd close the curtains”
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It was only a matter of time before we achieve herd stupidity.
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All these questions are good and relevant, mate. The problem seems to me that we have lost our sense of perspective. We’re going round in circles of madness, unable to see the wood for the trees. I saw a bit of an old Friends yesterday, where Chandler’s flat mate accuses him of sleeping with his ex. The conversation goes;
‘So you’re sleeping with my ex’
‘Non no no, I did not sleep with your girlfriend’
‘That’s exactly what someone who had slept with her would say’
He’s right, but his madness has caused him to be unable to see the truth. And there’s no arguing with him. That’s what has happened to our society concerning COVID, as it appears from where I’m standing. Whatever I say, you can still say ‘but there’s people dying’
This second wave is, in my opinion, nothing to do with our behaviour and failure to be responsible, and it wasn’t affected by the introduction of the mask mandate months ago now. It is the result of winter approaching and the loss of sunlight. It happens every single year. More people die as their weakened bodies grow weary from a lack of. Vitamin D, infrared, and warmth. We go indoors into damp stagnant environments and become more prone to respiratory diseases.
Look at the most recent video I posted above, this year wasn’t even high in mortality in Ireland. It was similar here. There are no signs of it being very high this winter either. The vulnerable are the over 70s and particularly the over 80s. But they are vulnerable every year because that’s the age that people die. They don't keep living forever unfortunately.
What you say is right, the virus is still here and hasn’t gone anywhere, but 500k carriers last week tells you it is not the virus alone that is the telling factor. Otherwise we’d all be dead.
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Essential work can be carried in houses mate. Get yourself a tool box with you at all times and you can go into as many houses as you like . Just say you're fixing a dodgy washing machine !!
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The local tier approach isnt working. The one that this govt has been insisting up until yesterday. A circuit breaker was considered over a month ago but not put in place and now here we are going into full lockdown on monday.
A read yesterday that the opinion of one scientist is that these lockdowns are not working and its basically just kicking the can down the road.
Surely they need to also change the way the deaths are being reported as it's not entirely accurate. If we are so far ahead of the "worst case scenario" how the fuck have this govt got this so wrong?
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This sounds like a load of cobblers to me. There have been many attempts to paint this virus as exceptional in one way or another. When was the last time you heard someone say ‘the fatality rate for children and young people is essentially zero’?
Why aren’t their antibodies being attacked as your scientist said?
The hardest thing to accept is that scientists, the new priestly cast, would come on TV to exaggerate the problem using half truths, hunches and falsehoods. I’ve been reading around this subject in recent years and have some fairly damning answers to the question - I’m just trying to stick to the facts as much as possible to avoid muddying the water.
But a simple parallel would be the Y2K panic. Once everyone decided it might happen, there was no end to the experts predicting how much carnage was going to be caused by it. In the end, nothing happened. It’s hard to remember now how much fuss there was beforehand because we feel safe now.
Michael Crichton did some interesting research on this human tendency for anyone interested.
Squad N0 1
Be a real pity if you do revert to lurker status Kev. You provoke plenty of debate, reasoned or otherwise. Your heart on your sleeve, shoot from the hip, “don’t give a f**k what you make of it,” attitude ensures there’s never a dull moment around your posts and conversations.
Think we would all pretty much to a man ..or woman.. prefer you to stay around to keep giving off in your own inimitable and amusing way (particularly when you don’t mean to be..)
You’re a good lad Kev and your continued presence on here would be appreciated by all, same goes for anyone feeling particularly worn out and run down by all this lockdown bollocks. We can all at least keep in touch and continue pretty much business as usual from our armchairs and sofas, on here. Particularly while the season carries on, plenty to talk about, debate, argue about. At least it takes your mind of all the crap surrounding Covid while you’re posting on here.
Works for me anyway...
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