Coronavirus and the impact on football

[Steveo]

Doesn’t take much of a leap to get from here to a cancelled season Kev.

A little Pie might help you feel a bit better..

[Kev0909]

Doesn’t take much of a leap to get from here to a cancelled season Kev.

A little Pie might help you feel a bit better..

This is spot on

[ianlfc]

As predicted a lock down here. With schools for 2 weeks,pubs and restaurants closing but surprisingly barbers, hairdressers and beauty salons included for 4 weeks.
Construction still allowed to work away even though you are mixing with loads of different people including in the tea huts coughing and spluttering with no masks everyday, but can't go and get your hair cut after work were you wear a mask and it's well sanitised.
They are making it up as they go along and there's no guarantee this will work.

[Kev0909]

As predicted a lock down here. With schools for 2 weeks,pubs and restaurants closing but surprisingly barbers, hairdressers and beauty salons included for 4 weeks.
Construction still allowed to work away even though you are mixing with loads of different people including in the tea huts coughing and spluttering with no masks everyday, but can't go and get your hair cut after work were you wear a mask and it's well sanitised.
They are making it up as they go along and there's no guarantee this will work.

I don't see how one part of the UK doing this will help as people travel a lot /shrug

Here this tier system is complete bollocks and just a way to save money in the long-run.

For example tier 2 means no mixing with other households- but pubs etc stay open- I don't know how they can operate in that situation with 10pm close too

It's so they shut befoe tier 3 hits and gov has to support em with money, not just pubs either.

It's a load of shite the fact nothing will be done until it's completely out of control (Tier 3)

[LEGS]

I agree with Kev/Stevo its grim sport wise and everyday life.

Season needs to carry on for the sake of all the jobs that would be lost but the football is shite only 5-6 games in and already its boring me.

No chance of a full Anfield this season I mean its possible the whole season is BCD whilst the Andrew Lloyd Webber theatre is already a show at roughly 50%.

[Taksin]

It would help If the tests worked, never mind some honesty about whether they are meaningful in any way.

“Liverpool midfielder Naby Keita reportedly tested positive for coronavirus at the end of last week – but there’s now suggestion it may have been a false positive.

Whether or not Keïta tested positive previously, Guinean journalist Amadou Makadji is now reporting he tested negative for COVID-19 in the latest round of tests and has been allowed to depart the Guinean camp to return to Liverpool ahead of Saturday’s derby match.

If both the earlier reports of a positive test and now of a negative one are true, it would make Keïta’s the second such case after Xherdan Shaqiri returned a positive test on joining up with Switzerland only to enter self-isolation and then later return a negative test.”

[Crimson Dynasty]

Is it?

Some people don’t even believe herd immunity is a real thing, such as the critic of the Great Barrington declaration that SR linked to above. I have no idea what you or others think about herd immunity, which is why I made that statement so casually. You may think it is some kind of nirvana only approached with vaccines, or you may think it is the invention of dangerous conspiracy theorists. Whichever thought you have, I doubt it’s peer reviewed.

That statement I made comes directly from Dr Michael Yeadon who was discussing the current state of play. He said it is the only explanation he thinks fits the fact that London is no longer seeing a comparable outbreak of Covid hospitalisation to say, Merseyside. His argument is simple and I highlighted it in the post above (albeit in a rush);

1) London had the disease worst in March (potentially providing herd immunity). The hospitals were more full with Covid cases in London

2) It doesn’t have it bad now

3) Why is that?

4) the government (and presumably people like you who think the burden of proof is on people like me) claims it is due to ‘measures’ that stop its spread

5) but influenza is spreading effectively through the same population that Covid isn’t spreading through.

6) The spread of the flu would be halted by the same measures in theory that halt Covid.

7) therefore Something else Is halting the spread of Covid.

8) what could that Other thing be other than herd immunity?

Any answers gratefully received

I'll just go ahead and point out that none of what you've posted there is proof.
Of what you claimed nor of anything at all, really.

Other than speculation and (wild) theorization chock full of logical causal fallacies ( Thing "A" is happening. Thing "B" happens to be near it while it's happening. Therefore, it follows that Thing "B" must be causing Thing "A". What else could it be?), as well as someone else's (uncorroborated and unproven) argument and theorizing on the same

To wit :
Sub-Saharan Africa (aside from South Africa) has an overall lower infection and death rate from COVID despite lower standard of healthcare, health facilities and quality of medical care standards.

By your logic (as demonstrated above), it must be because the Sub-Saharan African has inbuilt (herd?) immunity against COVID-19,........right?

To quote the words of a great man before me.....

".....something else is halting the spread of Covid (in Sub-Saharan Africa)
what could that Other thing be other than herd immunity?"

It's like Occam's razor on (some very strong) steroids or something....

[Taksin]

I'll just go ahead and point out that none of what you've posted there is proof.
Of what you claimed nor of anything at all, really.

Wrong. The figures for deaths from covid and deaths from influenza are available on the NHS website. That is the basis of the claim. Do you have proof that herd immunity has not been reached? If so, where is it?

You are not spelling out your beliefs, but presumably your animus towards me stems from the fact that you broadly support the SAGE group advice to the government and the government's attempts to deal with this 'crisis' (apart from the fact that you don't seem to be a very congenial person). If that is your position, you have a burden of proof to back it up, especially as it is currently ruining the entire global economy and doing so much damage elsewhere, such as the estimated extra 25,000 cancer deaths in this country alone.

To wit :
Sub-Saharan Africa (aside from South Africa) has an overall lower infection and death rate from COVID despite lower standard of healthcare, health facilities and quality of medical care standards.

By your logic (as demonstrated above), it must be because the Sub-Saharan African has inbuilt (herd?) immunity against COVID-19,........right?

No, this is bad logic. The comparison was between the spread of covid and the spread of influenza in London, not a comparison between different countries. Those cultural differences are interesting but have no bearing on deciding whether herd immunity is reached in London.

And, out of interest, what is your explanation for the lower death rate in Sub Saharan Africa? Here's a challenge for you - try explaining it in a way that doesn't nullify the claims behind our current policies.

[scientificred]

It can be transferred via bodily fluids so all bumming is off until the all clear sounds.

Is this still the case?

[Crimson Dynasty]

Wrong. The figures for deaths from covid and deaths from influenza are available on the NHS website. That is the basis of the claim. Do you have proof that herd immunity has not been reached? If so, where is it?

You're literally asking me to prove a NEGATIVE....again....of a claim that YOU made.

Do we really have to go through this again?

Why should I prove to YOU - the person who made the claim (and thus has the burden of proof) that what YOU are claiming is not true?
That's not how it works.


And NO, you STILL did not prove anything.
Giving me numbers regarding influenza infections rates and then COVID infections rates proves NOTHING about any possible or potential immunity - and specifically herd immunity - from COVID in the London population, other than to say "These two things (that are NOT related to each other) have happened and therefore I'm arbitrarily drawing a conclusion on one of them (not PROVING it) based on some dubious and tenuous correlation I've made between them"..

I don't have to prove shit to you. I'm not the one who made the claim.
YOU did.
YOU have to prove it.
Not me disprove it.

Learn how logic works, mate.

You make a claim - YOU have to prove it.
YOU!
You don't turn around and ask the audience you're trying to convince with your argument to disprove YOUR claim.

You are not spelling out your beliefs, but presumably your animus towards me stems from the fact that you broadly support the SAGE group advice to the government and the government's attempts to deal with this 'crisis' (apart from the fact that you don't seem to be a very congenial person). If that is your position, you have a burden of proof to back it up, especially as it is currently ruining the entire global economy and doing so much damage elsewhere, such as the estimated extra 25,000 cancer deaths in this country alone.

Wow.
Just.....wow.

A speculation and conclusion drawn on me (or more pointedly, on my beliefs and/or my supposed support for the government or government position) based on absolutely ZERO claims made by me towards those ends or positions asserting such "support", and then (and this is the best part....) while not even having any confirmation from me in any case, suddenly I have a burden of proof or the burden of proof to back up a notion that you dreamt up of me, and which exists entirely in your head about what I think.

In other words, you're asking me to prove something about what you've just thought up and surmised about me - whilst still in the midst of confirming whether I actually even think that way at all.

Huh.

Par for the course.
And totally on-brand.

No, this is bad logic. The comparison was between the spread of covid and the spread of influenza in London, not a comparison between different countries. Those cultural differences are interesting but have no bearing on deciding whether herd immunity is reached in London.

And, out of interest, what is your explanation for the lower death rate in Sub Saharan Africa? Here's a challenge for you - try explaining it in a way that doesn't nullify the claims behind our current policies.

Thank you.
Very bad logic, indeed.

At least we can agree on that even if we may not seem to have brought you to the position of seeing that that was an example argument I was making based on YOUR logic to demonstrate to you just how bad YOUR logic is.


I wasn't literally comparing Sub-Sarahan Africa COVID infection rates with London's COVID infection rates, but rather trying to make a point about how silly it is to draw simplistic conclusions about an observed set of data, without allowing for the possibility that that set of data could be as a result of a whole host of other far more complex and varied reasons.

But sadly the point went way waay waaaaay........ waaaaaaaaaaaaaaaaaaaaaaaaaaay over you head, as you thought I was arguing that comparison, rather than giving an example to illustrate to you how badly your logic works.

Substitute "Sub-Saharan Africa" for any other part of the world experiencing low infection rates relative to the rest of the world, mate.
It's not the point of the example.
This isn't hard.
Primary school children get the phenomenon of making ANALOGIES and analogical comparisons.

I'm tempted to say something about missing the forest for the trees but I'm worried you might actually believe I'm trying to make a point about COVID infection rates in tropical forests and the effect of trees on herd immunity.


Good grief!

Unbelievable.

So in conclusion and to re-cap : -

No actual evidence or hard data backing up the claim that London has actually achieved any herd immunity to speak of against COVID, other than the (totally anecdotal) observation that Influenza infection rates seem to be higher than COVID infection rates when (in your mind) they should be comparable or the same.

Good talk.
(although I feel like we could have arrived here much much sooner than this....with less effort and head-against-a-brick-wall bashing.)