Originally Posted by
Insidious
Just to add on some of the financial "risk v reward" stuff.
Let's look at Konate/Upamecano as they're the linked players we "really" want. We'll go with Upamecano as he is the less injury-plagued of the two.
His release clause in the Summer is £38m apparently. So folks might say that buying him for, let's say, £58m to get him in NOW would make total sense, as they feel the extra £20m to semi-guarantee (in theory) our Champion's League participation (and the subsequent money) would be worth it, especially if we factor in the chance to have a deep European run this season and the subsequent money that would bring. Even if we have the money (let's not do that discussion again just now) why on Earth would Leipzig sell?
They're our opponents in the last-16 of the Champion's League. I see fans of ours discussing the possible loss of tens of millions of pounds if we fail to purchase a centre-back and as a result (it shouldn't all hinge on one transfer to begin with!) and subsequently finish 5th or lower, thus missing out on Champion's League footie for 20/21.
Well, the same applies to other teams. Leipzig would be absolutely mental to risk a short-term windfall of £20m extra when they are only a few points ahead of those outside the top spots in the Bundesliga. They'd be placing THEIR Champion's League qualification in massive jeopardy when they will want to secure their status as a growing club in the eyes of their fans, in the eyes of future coaches, in the eyes of future data analysts (they're an intelligently run club) and in the eyes of future recruited players.
Besides, when it comes to the player in question (we'll say again that it's Upamecano and his release clause for example's sake) why would you move a few months early when you can wait, have more options and as a result of said options, possibly have higher wages? Much as we don't like it, City or United could come in for him and offer a higher wage packet and unless he is hiding a secret affinity for Liverpool or values the possibility of legend status at Liverpool more than short-term financial rewards with City or United (or Pep's coaching at City) he would be wise to sit and weigh up options - especially as he'll be going for arguably lower than market value and thus his agent will rightly try and get higher wages to compensate if he's good at his job.
So all the risk really, depending on the club/player of course, is for the selling club, not for us. Much as we may want it, acquisition could be very difficult - and if we did have a lot of money to throw at the situation (let's pretend we do) and offered Leipzig £70m or something to pry Upamecano away, we absolutely ruin the post-Covid market to our long-term detriment, which only benefits the sugar-daddy clubs out there.
Getting a centre-back that fits how we play, can adapt quickly, for the correct deal that doesn't jeopardise our future is tricky enough, but doing so in a January window that closes imminently makes it all the tougher. If the club get business done I will be absolutely delighted, but we may need to dig deep once more.
Besides, 23 games (all comps) since Virgil's injury and we have conceded 15 goals - so we concede, on average, 0-1 goals per game.
We can overcome that. By getting (even) better at monopolising possession and by having our front three and our full-backs getting back to something like their former selves, plus improving the counter-press, we can grind out enough to get to the Summer, having finished in the Top Four spots and having hopefully reached a Champion's League quarter-final or better.
We really can. From there, things will look a lot better. We definitely need a centre-back and if one doesn't arrive in the Summer it raises enormous questions, but I wouldn't bank on one arriving today or tomorrow.
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