Reply With QuoteIncidentally, CCTV, why do you think City have sold Jesus, Sterling and Zelinsky this window?
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First Team
Objection, speculation!Originally Posted by CCTV
It would be foolish of him not to ‘know’, or at least have an idea. And this also shows the incompetence of Hicks and Gillette who fucked up their asset disasterously.
The argument you appear to be making here is it’s good business for the sugar daddies to spend enormous amounts of money on their clubs. It may well be, but I again don’t believe that was the reason they spent that money, I don’t think Roman knew or cared what Chelsea would be worth when he started splashing a small part of his fortune.
See the LIV golf spending - totally rash. No one knows how it will end up but it’s an opportunity for the Saudis that s worth risking a billion dollars on. It isn’t a sensible money making investment (although it could end up as one in an unlikely scenario). It’s also destroying the soul of the golf tour.
If you want the club to go into debt, on the strength of its value, the Glazers are your model. And that doesn’t guarantee success either
Finally, what values are ‘set to’ do is a speculation. I think the economy is set to fall apart and western countries ate set to disintegrate into a series of revolutions and debt defaults. What football clubs will end up being worth under those circumstances is unclear.
Exponential growth seems unlikely to continue.
First Team
Incidentally, CCTV, why do you think City have sold Jesus, Sterling and Zelinsky this window?
Koala tea
I'd say many who looked at the American Market saw Football as a relatively underdeveloped market.
One with huge growth potential, and arguably moreso than any American sport.
I'm saying if you buy an asset for X, invest Y and then sell it for twice the cost of (X&Y), you have made quite a profit.
I'd speculate that is not a fortunate happenstance for those owners that they each could turn a nice profit.
Considering you undervalued Chelseas retail price or market value by 50%, perhaps you should take some time to reconsider your appraisals.
If you believe that, wouldn't you be better off investing your resources into a sustainable small farm and go for the prepper lifestyle.
Seems an odd time to become a company owner and investor, whilst predicting revolution.
Or is your business aiming at the revolutionary market place?
It is true that in 5 years time, JwH might find himself back trading beans, but this time in a nuclear fallout Boston as he tries to employ some security to rebuild his small empire out of the wastelands.
However outside of a cataclysmic event, Football looks a good investment over the coming years.
Koala tea
I'd say that like Chelsea who've had little concern with FFP in recent times, we are seeing city in an era where they can be FFP compliant.
The big spend is done, the books cooked and they can now enjoy the dividend of all their investment. (Which should have seen them kicked out of the CL at least)
https://www.forbes.com/sites/zakgarnerpurkis/2021/05/29/sheikh-mansours-biggest-win-manchester-citys-46-billion-increase-in-value/?sh=181e49c86f2f
First Team
I’ve stated a million times their model is to make a profit at the point of sale. There is nothing surprising or confounding to me about that - as a result it is my belief their plan was to improve the monetary value of the club by being successful on and off the pitch.
I don’t think that was the plan of the Saudis, the Abudabians or the Russian. I accept they have to a greater or lesser degree accrued gains from their investment - just not that it was their motivation.
My appraisal of what? The intentions of Roman Abramovic? The intentions of the Saudis at Newcastle?
You pointed out LFC have similarly increased the value of the club without 1) spending their own money or 2) going into debt. That backs up my basic position that the club is well run.
Neither side of the argument says anything about the comparative role of Klopp or FSG in bringing about our success. This financial question is a side issue. There is big money in football - surprise surprise
As for the value of Chelsea - I think the new guy has vastly overpaid. Only time will tell - not your promise of where valuations are going.
The value at the point of purchase is what someone is willing to pay - I’d hazard a guess there aren’t that many people lining up to spend 3 billion on any football club at the moment. The Newcastle sale for example seemed to be done at old valuations. But I could be wrong
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Last edited by Taksin; 29th July 2022 at 03:11 PM.
Koala tea
1)
So if their motivation wasn't to make money, what was it ?
So far, people would have me believe that these clubs were bought to make people think better of them... as they are
Russian/Putin, or Islamic
2)
If you were so out from the market now, why are you sticking with your appraisal versus the market place.
Your expectation was out by 1.6 billion dollars, 50%.
You can kick and scream about your opinions, and wait ten years for the possibility of being proven right (somehow)
But everything today points out you were wrong in terms of their sale price and market value.
The rest very quickly
We agree the club is reasonably well run
Newcastle & Southampton are not at the same ballpark as Chelsea today.
Newcastle are valued at under 400 million, and we expect the Saudis to try and circumvent regulators and repeat what other owners did.
For me that's them having some fun, diversifying their portfolios, and making big money.
With regards jwh we saw Salah offered a contract that many posited he wouldn't get, it would break JwHs model. Its high risk.
I'm gonna say that I rate JwH higher than you do.
From here on out im gonna say,
You undermine his prudence as an investor,
You undermine his ability to be dynamic,
You undermine the ambitious aims.
First Team
Congratulations!
No idea what you’re on about here. I presume you mean underestimate as I have virtually no ability to undermine John Henry. I doubt you rate them higher than me but would love to hear your reasoning.
And I have done no kicking or screaming. I think he overpaid. It’s a thought. We are free to have them.
There is a massive inflation in all asset classes (private assets) at the moment. Part of a flight to safety is one explanation. I’m not sure football income will keep rising in the current global economic conditions . If I read it correctly the Chelsea owner has bought using a lot of debt. If so that puts them in a potential predicament that we do not share.
Koala tea
Thanks.
You undermined him as an investor. You said it was speculative that he knew he could make a shit load of money out of our clubs purchase.
I'm saying he's a better investor than you think.
What business have you endeavoured to establish out of interest for the cataclysmic future ?
First Team
This is presumptive of you (and incorrect - I've never accused him or them of speculation). My whole argument on this matter is against those who say we have neglectful owners and those who say all the success or, like you, the main thrust of our success, is down to Klopp.
Given that we are very successful now and given that I think that can be attributed to the stewardship of FSG, and given that I think success is their strategy for developing their asset, I am probably the last person who can be accused of underestimating, or undermining to use your term, their shrewdness.
It's part of the service industry to do with medicine. The money that goes into it will be fairly large and will not be mine. The main risks lie elsewhere - they are backing me because they believe in my ability to make the business work. They have to make their own judgement about the future of the global economy. I do not hold high hopes for it but I still hope my business will be able to adjust during difficult times enough to survive and even thrive, but I cannot know this for sure.
I don't know the financial history of JWH but my impression is that he heads an investment group - the 300 million was not his but entrusted to his skillset.
A quick compound interest rate calculation reveals that 300 million sat in a bank at 5% interest for 10 years would yield 488 million. That's if you can get 5%.
If they'd have put 300 million into bitcoin in 2015 that investment would have risen by something like 200,000 times. That's a tidy sum. But they banked on FSG's track record in stewardship of sporting franchises. A sound bet.
Koala tea
1) I've listed a few areas where I'm saying JwH is better than you've purported. You can say it's speculation, fair point.
He's my uncle John again, even with regards to yourself
Presently Klopp is the spearhead for me. Think Klopp gets a fair bit of criticism on here from many people. Already posted mine over last season, others have the midfield blind spot issue, 19 has a few to add
But Klopps largely fulfilled his brief in a rather spectacular manner. Could have been more of course. Whereas our owners I believe are going to be judged over a longer term.
As a brand/business seeking to get to the very top, our owners will need to ensure their end. To win more big trophies and contracts/sponsors.
Klopps message was doubters to believers, that's the reality of where the fans were at.
I for example, always said we didn't need to match spend/wages. But you do need to adapt.
When I spoke of Mbappe on 400,000 a week being a commercial cash cow, people said we'd never spend that much on one players wages. I said what do you think it's going to cost to sign Mane & Salah up again.
With Salah we've seen the club dynamically adapt to the ever evolving reality of our advanced situation.
Salah is a big commercial asset, globally I'd say he's the player people associate with LFC. In media/pr/brand-association he's the only communicator on Klopps level, as I see it. Worth his weight in gold commercially.
In terms of getting the brand and business to where we want it, it was a good bet imo. Salah will retain his commercial appeal, which is important to sponsors.
2) interesting, good luck again with it. Hope you do well from being headhunted 👍
Unless the world goes to shit entirely, football is going to continue to grow and expand. Preppers do look a bit cuter these days all the same
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