Squad construction - and the future.

[Insidious]

In need of a semi-coherent ramble and gathering of thoughts. Probably a bad time to do it (after a win would be better) but it is what it is.

I did a recent post in the General transfer thread that underlined our options and did so with a view to explaining that foreign players couldn't arrive (in January) without sales. But it will serve as a decent template for what we have. It's not intended as a "list the players you want to arrive" thread or bemoan spending issues, but moreso to highlight areas where things could be better and the areas that may bode well for the future.

THE SQUAD

Max squad size of 25.

Premier League rule - At least 8 players must be homegrown (a player of any nationality that has spent at least three seasons training at a professional English or Welsh club before the age of 21). U21 players do not count towards the total. For the 23/24 season, that will be players born on or after January 1st of 2002.

UEFA rule - At least 8 players must be homegrown (trained by their club or by another club in the same national association for at least three years between the ages of 15 and 21). At least 4 of those must be homegrown by Liverpool FC.

Foreign players (max. 17) -

1. Alisson
2. Tsimikas
3. Fabinho
4. van Dijk
5. Konate
6. Thiago (contract expires at end of 23/24)
7. Núñez
8. Keita (expected to leave in Summer)
9. Firmino contract expires in Summer)
10. Jota
11. Salah
12. Matip (contract expires at end of 23/24)
13. Adrian (expected to leave in Summer)
14. Diaz
15. Arthur (expected to leave in Summer)
16. Robertson
17. Gakpo
#Special case# - Ramsay does not require registration for Premier League but counts as a foreign player in any UEFA competition.

Home-grown -

1. Jones
2. Kelleher (possibly leaving?)
3. Ox (expected to leave in Summer)
4. Henderson
5. Gomez
6. Alexander-Arnold
7. Milner (expected to leave in Summer)
8. Phillips

Notable players -

Carvalho does not require registration for Premier League but counts as homegrown (FA) in UEFA competition.
Elliott does not require registration for Premier League but will counts as homegrown (LFC) in UEFA competition.
Morton does not require registration for Premier League but counts as homegrown (LFC) in UEFA competition.
Bajcetic does not require registration for Premier League but counts as a foreign player in UEFA competition.

So with 3 foreign players expected to leave (4 if Firmino doesn't renew), and Ramsay to take one of those spots, that leaves us with space for a maximum of 2 (or 3, if Firmino leaves) foreign players that can come in during the Summer - unless of course there are sales.

Possible foreign departures and where their registration spaces may go -

Keita - Ramsay could take his space.
Adrian - new foreign signing or homegrown player.
Arthur - new foreign signing or homegrown player.
Firmino - new foreign signing or homegrown player.

Possible homegrown departures -

Milner - need a homegrown player to replace.
Ox - need a homegrown player to replace.
Kelleher - need a homegrown player to replace.

If the situation arose where Bellingham actually joined (may as well address it) ? -

Jude Bellingham would not require registration for the Premier League but would count as a foreign player in UEFA competition for the 23/24 season. If we sign him between now and the summer, then he would be re-classed as homegrown in UEFA comps for the 24/25 season onwards.

MIDFIELD WAGE BILL AND VALUE

You find conflicting reports on the internet, but from what I can gather -

Thiago is on £200k-per-week.
Henderson is £190k-per-week.
Fabinho is on £180k-per-week.
Keita is on £120k-per-week.
Ox is on £120k-per-week.

All of these most senior of Liverpool's professional midfielders have been subject to scrutiny in varying degrees this season (Thiago probably seen the most favourably right now) and a whopping£810,000 per week is being spent on them - and that's before we mention Milner, who I think everyone appreciates - even if they recognise he shouldn't play here forever.

It makes it all the more confusing that there was talk of trying to extend Keita's contract. There are definite opportunities to free up money via the wage bill if we allow players to go in the Summer. Ox, Keita and Milner are all for expiry and we should be letting at least two of them depart. The club may entertain trying to sell Fabinho to a Serie A club as an option - we may not get a huge fee, but that wage packet is considerable and (currently) isn't merited.

AGE PROFILE AND THE FUTURE

We actually have a surprising number of players that are of the age of 26 or younger at the moment, which is encouraging. Here is a list of them -

Tsimikas (26)
Konate (23)
Núñez (23)
Jota (26)
Diaz (26)
Gakpo (23)
Ramsay (19)
Jones (21)
Kelleher (24)
Gomez (25)
Alexander-Arnold (24)
Phillips (25)
Carvalho
Elliott (19)
Morton (20)
Bajcetic (18)
van den Berg (21)

RESET?

Let's not forget that Klopp inherited a bit of a mish-mash of a squad, yet we managed to do quite a bit just by getting a signing or two right and then building upon it. Whilst some degree of clear-out is needed, I don't think we need necessarily be in the pits of despair. Injuries are certainly a big factor, but the Ashes of Klopp's first cycle could yet fertilise the soil of what is to come. We won't see it this season, but I don't yet see 23/24 and 24/25 as needing to be written off - some of this crop of lads will improve and whilst we may not spend as much as some would like, the £120m or so in the last calendar year on Diaz, Gakpo and Núñez shows we aren't in the position Rafa was when given a transfer budget of £3.5m.

I think the take-away is that while we aren't anything like what we were, there are good players here and if we find anything resembling rhythm or form (sooner or later) we can still get a good tune out of this squad.

[dicko1969]

Nice article.

On the cctv theme..
Just out of curiosity what now would Fabinho, Thiago, Henderson fetch if sold?

It seems we use the asset til the end.

Why not if a Tchouaméni, Valverde and Camavinga come in to replace them.

At the moment a future midfield looks like

Bajcetic Elliott Jones.

It is so clear to see. Why didn't the club sort it last summer ?

I suppose they wanted oxlade and keita out before the investment.

[dicko1969]

Real rid of Casemiro £70m, modric to the end and kroos too.

The club is no way worth £4bn

[Insidious]

At the moment a future midfield looks like

Bajcetic Elliott Jones.

It is so clear to see. Why didn't the club sort it last summer ?

That's the big question. There are excerpts from Pep Lijnders (presumably from his book) floating around the internet about a slight change in policy and aiming for ready-made/straight into the XI sorts of players rather than those with potential on the cusp of big things. When Tchouameni wasn't coming here (and Bellingham unavailable) it seems we took a calculated gamble on getting through the 22/23 season until such times as alternative targets might come - presumably because we have a finite budget within our model and didn't want to buy twice - just as we went for Kabak to tide us over while we couldn't get our "real" target in Konate.

That's an estimation of course - nothing concrete. The problem of course being that the calculated risk of "muscling through" 22/23 without upgrades looks like it may not pay off - having played half a season we are 10 points off 4th spot, in bad form and with considerable issues in the injury department. Presence in the Champion's League is something we need in terms of revenue streams and with key staff leaving the club (and question marks over those who control fitness/rehab) we are at a bit of a cross-roads.

With the increased stadium capacity we will bring in an extra £11m or so per-year to top up the coffers and if that came with some departures we could definitely find the means to finance a couple of capable midfielders - but that would be off-set badly if we miss out on Champion's League football, which is looking likely.

A ruthless Director of Football coming in to assist with the recruitment and future-proofing might be a good move, but we delve into speculative territory there. If it were up to me I wouldn't be giving out any contract extensions for those above 28 or so until we have addressed the midfield situation in the Summer.

I wouldn't want us to become ruthless to a fault and I understand the desire to protect the value of players, but I think we should be doing better when it comes to sales and some of our choices in the contract department.

[dicko1969]

We did over the last 3 or 4 seasons tie down a lot of players.

That's the otherside of the argument.
If you don't give 28yo gini or mane or to less extent origi , a contract extension, then ciao for free.

It's a fine balance and crystal ball situation.

Of all those hugely positive transfers and contract extension, then we have a gini and origi going for zero .

The alternative was £300k a week for a 30yo.

I think in general Liverpool have got transfers in and out mostly right.

Contracts right too generally.

The coutinho transfer was in hindsight, incredible. Vvd + Alisson

Bobby Salah Mane Diaz Jota Darwin for a Neymar.

All is not so bad.
But twice they fooked up royally.

Once re the centre back situation; but horrendously bad luck with Matip Vvd Gomez all out.

And now, this is a fook up too.
And panicked with unfit / injured Arthur.
Hopefully it really gets sorted next summer.
And hopefully klopp doesn't lose his job because of idiots above.

[dicko1969]

Think of alexis sanchez, drinkwater, bakayoko, Leeds United early 2000s , there are many worse examples.
Players sitting , doing nothing except picking up cash.

[teesred]

Think of alexis sanchez, drinkwater, bakayoko, Leeds United early 2000s , there are many worse examples.
Players sitting , doing nothing except picking up cash.

Wayne Bridge.

[Insidious]

Think of alexis sanchez, drinkwater, bakayoko, Leeds United early 2000s , there are many worse examples.
Players sitting , doing nothing except picking up cash.

Largely in agreement and know what you mean on the crystal ball situation.

Where I think we could perhaps have done (slightly) better is certain types of sales. We sold very well with the likes of Ibe and Brewster of course, but on a couple of occasions we have been stubborn on evaluations.

I'd need to double-check exact figures and windows, but at different points we wanted to sell Origi, Ox and Phillips. I can't remember the Origi evaluation, but distinctly remember us holding out for £15m for Ox (which never came) and £12m for Phillips (also never came) and had we settled at £12m and £10m respectively, there would have been an extra £22m to play with that may have gone towards a young midfielder for example.

That's very nitpicky and probably expecting too much from the club - plus I myself was very quick to defend us holding out for good fees so as to not seem pushovers in the market - but sometimes the value of getting a different option in is worth more than a £3m differential or whatever and I'd have love us to have a young, hungry mid in the squad determined to prove their value.

Margins and all that. Do think our overall business has been most excellent and it's been a real shame that £90m or so on our midfield transition never really worked - Ox and Keita were selected as the bridge between our older and younger midfielders to help pass the torch and it hasn't really worked.

[dicko1969]

Exact
Should have been;
Fabinho Oxlade Keita
That was the vision.

Instead it's a mess .
Either too old (no legs) or too young lacking experience and quality.

Has keita and oxlade deserved the £30m each in salary over the last 5 years.

The fans should ask for a refund.

Made for life, privileged.

[dicko1969]

Keita Adrian Bobby Arthur 2023
Thiago Matip 2024

If resale I'd cash in on Thiago too.

Real revolution x5 new foreign players possible.