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Last edited by CCTV; 27th January 2021 at 04:05 AM.
Just my personal take but I believe we are seeing far lower incidence of death in East Asia as a result of some level of immunity and an understanding of how to mobilise a response - due to previous exposure to SARS. Look at Taiwan for instance..
What is it..? 7 deaths in a population of 23 million!!
I don't believe any of the figures being reported. When you've got so many people/countries all with their own agendas, you're going to end up with constant, and very large stream of lies, damn lies, and statistics.
We'll likely only get anything close to realistic figures and interpretations of said figures years or even decades from now.
Etiam si omnes, ego non
In all honesty - I don’t see how we ever will.
Would take a totally impartial global investigation - sponsored by whom and policed by...?
How exactly would that ever work..? Even then - how do you determine the definitive cause of death of someone who died 15 - 20 years ago across nations with analytical processes as different as say Myanmar, Luxembourg, Uganda, Uzbekistan or insert any..
As usual the statistics published are all that matter - they are what the media will push and as a result what will become accepted public knowledge. There will be certain medical professionals in each nation who know that their own numbers are less than reliable - BUT how will they know about the numbers from the nation next door or across the globe?
So actual reliable numbers - probably we will never know. They could be far higher or wildly lower than what is accepted as truth.
Science is meant to be totally impartial. Once the current crop of politicians die / fade away or have something else on which to concentrate, noone will particularly care what comes out since it won't have as much of an impact on their political capital - eventually the political grip on truth will weaken and scientists will have an easier time doing what they're meant to be doing. It's the way it's always been. It'll take a while (and science isn't done over night... it also takes time) but eventually I am confident it will happen.
I agree we're never likely to know exactly how many people died or had COVID-19, but we are likely to get much better and more reliable estimates than what we have now - e.g. I doubt anyone had any clue just how many died of the various outbreaks of the plague over the centuries, but we now have a more or less decent idea.
Etiam si omnes, ego non
I am fairly certain the numbers are distorted at present. Covid positives are higher than they should be.
In two or three weeks the proof will be in as we will have the raw mortality data and that shows the clear epidemic Gompertz curve for March and, currently, almost all of Europe is having a quiet year. England is one of the few exceptions, although Wales Scotland and NI are still quiet.
There is one final problem with the raw mortality - we know the lockdown itself is causing more death for many conditions. How soon this catastrophe will hit is not clear yet, but it can be expected to cause a rise this winter.
Steveo is right about the pre-existing immunity in Asian countries. There is a study from Japan that illustrates this well. What it also means is the measures or strategies are, again, not the telling factor when it comes to mortality. I now think the Chinese data is probably not far from being accurate, for all intents and purposes.
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