Match Thread : Man Utd v Liverpool

[eggy81]

It just a means of assesing the opportunities to score based on probability.
Those figures, I've added up from individual xg today.
It would suggest manu should score between 0 and 1 goals.
0.71 they got 2
And we should score 3-4 goals.
3.6 we got 2.
Probable scorelines based on this xg analysis
Lfc win, 3-0, 3-1, 4-0, 4-1.
So your eye and these stats are not out of kilter by much.

At halftime, the stats would suggest a bollocking for our attackers.
We had halftime to say, we're missing loads of chances today, make sure we don't concede.
We conceded after 5 minutes and again 8 minutes later.
At fulltime the defense should be getting a bollocking. Manu had an xg of 0 first half.
These statistical insights are not earth shattering.

Is a chance graded on historical statistics of similar type chances converted or how do they define what represents an expected goal. Is stronger/weaker foot and flow of game taken into account for example. I reckon if mainoo gets that chance in first half he probably doesn’t execute it but with them having equalised and their tails up for a bit along with the crowd he probably had amazing clarity in the moment he curled that in. The slow mo from behind that goal after the game was unreal. He got an enormous amount of bend onto that ball.

[Steveo]

I think we all have. But when the season start u felt we are a top 4 hopeful. But if we in a race come April our emotion will see us through. I live so far away but I just want those on the terrace to just push these boys along, so many under 25 who are going to be here with us after Klopp who need to feel Anfield and the traveling support earn something is on the line. Let's do it give them our all. I felt against Brighton a little and totally against Sheffield we were not that hostile hungry Anfield.

Anyone who goes to a few games to see them in the flesh will be apprehensive. Will likely have been bricking it for this game today.

We look decidedly vulnerable despite some superb quality within the squad. Remember we conceded at home to Sheff United, Laboured to take a point from Luton. What is truly remarkable is our league position. I still have no clue how on earth we are up there fighting with 2 teams who - if we are honest - are just better teams… Well I do actually and his name is Jurgen Klopp.

But the players are humans - and they have been rinsed. We lament the injuries but they happen in a team that is pushing itself beyond breaking point.

If we win this title - and sadly I don’t think we can - but IF we do - it’s the most amazing achievement in our history and certainly Klopp’s

[CCTV]

CCTV was, to my understanding, saying we shouldn't be dropping points against a side that isn't challenging for the Champion's League spots.

I was highlighting the fact that Man City have already done so by losing to Wolves.

It happens. After 31 games we are ahead of Man City and level with Arsenal.

I am disappointed with not winning. However I am delighted (given that we were 2-1 down) with ensuring we got a draw to keep our hopes alive.

Everyone has been willing to say Man City or Arsenal "will" win when they have been behind us - so we should be able to maintain some hope that we might win given that we are level with the League leaders and ahead of Man City.

I mocked your positive spin, where you said,

"Bigger, bigger picture - look at our opponents today. That draw has ensured that they almost certainly don't play Champion's League football next season, yet they're singing "Jürgen's cracking up" at the end - how far they have fallen is ridiculous."

By saying...
"Perspective!!

We've lost our advantage to a team that wasn't going to make top4."

United weren't making top4. Our getting a draw and robbing them of 3 points is no real factor in that reality, them not finishing in the top4.
It's a demented take away/spin.

[Nineteenx]

Have to train finishing off moves & our final ball & make sure we win all our remaining games, the other 2 will drop points, maybe only 2 each but it’ll be enough if we take care of our own business

[CCTV]

Is a chance graded on historical statistics of similar type chances converted or how do they define what represents an expected goal. Is stronger/weaker foot and flow of game taken into account for example. I reckon if mainoo gets that chance in first half he probably doesn’t execute it but with them having equalised and their tails up for a bit along with the crowd he probably had amazing clarity in the moment he curled that in. The slow mo from behind that goal after the game was unreal. He got an enormous amount of bend onto that ball.

It's based on position shot is taken from and other factors.
Like a chance 6 yards out bang in the middle of the goal is more likely scored than an effort from 30 yards
A chance 6 yards out with no keeper or defender in the way, more likely than with one to beat.

It's based on the probably of a shot being scored under similar conditions based on the historical statistical record.
If Robbie Fowler and Joe Gomez have exactly the same opportunity to score, it would have the same Xg value regardless of whose taking the shot.
You would expect Fowler to outperform his Xg significantly compared with Gomez of course. As he's a better finisher.
Similalry Gerrard & Henderson when shooting from outside the box would be taking opportunities to score with the same Xg. Again, we would expect Gerrard to score more of those lower probability shots.

[Jenson78]

Yep Quansah obviously needed replacing were in a title race that prior to that shit show was in our own hands, rest Konate v fucking Atlanta, dropping points in a title race to rest a player for the first leg of a 2 legged Europa tie the mind fucking boggles

Konate playing for bleeding France after missing games for us was a fucking piss take. He should of played today, not Sheff Utd. Play Quansah against them. Rest him against Utd, play him against Atalanta.

[CCTV]

Flow of game has no impact on xg.
It's similar opportunities to score (categorised) & the probability of scoring from those different types of chances based on the statistical record.

[Insidious]

United weren't making top4. Our getting a draw and robbing them of 3 points is no real factor in that reality, them not finishing in the top4.
It's a demented take away/spin.

Their odds were very long, granted. But while it's mathematically plausible they shouldn't be relinquishing it.

They're singing about Jürgen "cracking up" at full-time when they have just gone from a win to a draw.

They are a mid-table. We however, are competitive. Level with this season's challengers, a point ahead of last season's Champions.

Hence - "perspective".

[Nineteenx]

Konate playing for bleeding France after missing games for us was a fucking piss take. He should have played today, not Sheff Utd. Play Quansah against them. Rest him against Utd, play him against Atalanta.

My thoughts & that of the majority looking at their teams for Sheffield UTD, Quansah’s a great young player & he has & can play aggressive front foot defending but in his last 2 or 3 games he’s started dropping off, maybe the nerves are gettting to him, but it caused us real issues in the last 3 games he’s played It was obvious he needed subbing at HT

[Crimson Dynasty]

Konate playing for bleeding France after missing games for us was a fucking piss take. He should of played today, not Sheff Utd. Play Quansah against them. Rest him against Utd, play him against Atalanta.

He probably didn't start today because he took at knock in the last game and was probably injured or not deemed fit enough to start.


Everyone was complaining that Curtis Jones should have started ahead of Szoboslai who was just a disaster today but then when Jones was brought on as a sub for Szobo, it became immediately clear why he wasn't started ahead of Szobo despite the latter's awful form.

Jones was in even worse form.

Sometimes Klopp and the coaches see things in training that as fans don't see.

I'd still be curious to figure out why he feels it necessary to start and play Salah full games even when it's clear he's not just lacking form from his return from injury, but also because whatever form he has is surely further impacted by the Ramadan-necessited lack of solid food and water hunger than energy loss that you would imagine someone would be going through.

(and it shows in his energy levels during games or lack thereof)

Maybe it's just an indictment on Gakpo who should be getting that call to start ahead of Mo, were his form any better than it is.